{ "schema": "glee.research.electricity-reference.v1", "edition_date": "2026-10-16", "title": "Electricity for Canadian industrial expansion", "attribution": "GLEE analysis prepared with OpenAI Codex assistance; primary project observations reported by BC Hydro.", "scope": "Source-referenced engineering scale, not national forecast or available supply allocation.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/Annual_Reports/2025_2026/pdf/agency/bchydro.pdf", "sha256": "42c60d15e2afa34e2ee3207d35f8c9cf6665f8e5427b741591017a33886a3cdf" }, { "url": "https://sitecproject.com/sites/default/files/SiteC-Semi-Annual-Progress-Report-1-Oct2025-Mar2026_0.pdf", "sha256": "30e972968edf01f962277dbd70c2b13d891bc9f01fcca09429dde6f3eb0449fc" }, { "url": "https://www.sitecproject.com/sites/default/files/2025_10_30_BCH_SC_LL_EXEC_SMR.pdf", "sha256": "c6af55eab0c05c379e1a1367aeb39878cf60d610a0a8fc11f3fd2c65b9552a3b" } ], "reported_actual_energy": [ { "fiscal_year_ended_march31": 2026, "reported_year_end_generating_capacity_MW": 1230, "reported_actual_generation_GWh": 3574, "published_share_of_utility_supply_pct": 4.9, "classification": "Reported actual utility statistical table; capacity is year-end,not annual average; generating units were commissioned during these years." }, { "fiscal_year_ended_march31": 2025, "reported_year_end_generating_capacity_MW": 767, "reported_actual_generation_GWh": 1308, "published_share_of_utility_supply_pct": 1.9, "classification": "Reported actual utility statistical table; capacity is year-end,not annual average; generating units were commissioned during these years." } ], "reported_long_run_average_energy_GWh_per_year": 5100, "capacity_definitions": { "reported_year_end_statistical_table_MW": 1230, "semiannual_installed_range_MW": [ 1100, 1230 ], "annual_major_capital_table_range_MW": [ 1150, 1230 ], "minimum_range_difference": "Lower endpoints1100and1150differbetween summaries;not resolved or averaged. Year-endstatisticalpoint1230retained;not a guaranteed continuousoutput." }, "timeline": { "construction_start": "2015-07-27", "first_generating_unit_in_service": "2024-10-27", "final_generating_unit_in_service": "2025-08-08", "construction_start_to_final_unit_days": 3665, "schedule_boundary": "Ahead-of-schedule statements refer to updatedapprovedschedule;not proof of beatingoriginalbaseline. Fullyoperationalunits do not mean trailingcosts/contractsclosed." }, "costs_as_of2026_03_31": { "project_forecast_total_million_CAD": 16000, "project_actual_life_to_date_million_CAD": 14917, "project_forecast_remaining_million_CAD": 1083, "direct_construction": { "budget_million_CAD": 11153, "actual_life_to_date_million_CAD": 11302 }, "indirect": { "budget_million_CAD": 2082, "actual_life_to_date_million_CAD": 1712 }, "construction_and_indirect": { "budget_million_CAD": 13235, "actual_life_to_date_million_CAD": 13014 }, "interest_during_construction_and_contingency": { "budget_million_CAD": 2765, "actual_life_to_date_million_CAD": 1903 } }, "cost_basis": { "currency": "CAD", "price_basis": "Nominal multi-year project accounting amounts;no constant2024CADconversion", "scope": "Includes capital,regulatorydeferrals andcertainoperatingexpenditures;forecast includes combinedinterestduringconstruction/contingencyline. Not pure fixedinvestment resourcecost or full lifecyclecost.", "FY2025_expenditures_placed_in_service_million_CAD": 13200, "placed_in_service_fiscal_year_ended_march31": 2025, "placed_in_service_temporal_wording": "in the prior fiscal year; report paragraph is FY2026", "placed_in_service_boundary": "Financial transfer into service duringFY2025,not totalLTDprojectcost or a national productivecapitalgain. Exact bridge to other cost fields not established.", "recurring_lifecycle_cost": null, "residual_value": null, "realized_NPV_or_full_LCOE": null }, "load_formula": "generation_MWh = requested_meter_MW * calendar_hours * utilization / (1-assumed_delivery_loss_fraction)", "requirements": [ { "calendar_year": 2027, "hours": 8760, "assumed_requested_peak_meter_MW": 100, "assumed_utilization": 0.8, "assumed_delivery_loss_fraction": 0.0, "meter_energy_MWh": 700800.0, "required_generation_energy_MWh": 700800.0, "required_generation_peak_MW": 100.0, "long_run_reference_energy_equivalents": 0.13741176470588234, "FY2026_reported_energy_equivalents": 0.19608282036933408, "year_end_capacity_equivalents": 0.08130081300813008, "admission": "Scale equivalents only. Actual commissioning-year energy and reported long-run average are different measures, not low/high forecasts. Delivery loss is an assumed constant scalar, not a grid flow model. No available allocation or reliable continuous service proved.", "national_productive_gain": "UNESTIMATED", "household_prosperity": "UNESTIMATED" }, { "calendar_year": 2027, "hours": 8760, "assumed_requested_peak_meter_MW": 100, "assumed_utilization": 0.8, "assumed_delivery_loss_fraction": 0.05, "meter_energy_MWh": 700800.0, "required_generation_energy_MWh": 737684.2105263158, "required_generation_peak_MW": 105.26315789473685, "long_run_reference_energy_equivalents": 0.14464396284829723, "FY2026_reported_energy_equivalents": 0.20640296880982537, "year_end_capacity_equivalents": 0.08557980316645272, "admission": "Scale equivalents only. Actual commissioning-year energy and reported long-run average are different measures, not low/high forecasts. Delivery loss is an assumed constant scalar, not a grid flow model. No available allocation or reliable continuous service proved.", "national_productive_gain": "UNESTIMATED", "household_prosperity": "UNESTIMATED" }, { "calendar_year": 2027, "hours": 8760, "assumed_requested_peak_meter_MW": 100, "assumed_utilization": 1.0, "assumed_delivery_loss_fraction": 0.0, "meter_energy_MWh": 876000.0, "required_generation_energy_MWh": 876000.0, "required_generation_peak_MW": 100.0, "long_run_reference_energy_equivalents": 0.17176470588235293, "FY2026_reported_energy_equivalents": 0.2451035254616676, "year_end_capacity_equivalents": 0.08130081300813008, "admission": "Scale equivalents only. Actual commissioning-year energy and reported long-run average are different measures, not low/high forecasts. Delivery loss is an assumed constant scalar, not a grid flow model. No available allocation or reliable continuous service proved.", "national_productive_gain": "UNESTIMATED", "household_prosperity": "UNESTIMATED" }, { "calendar_year": 2027, "hours": 8760, "assumed_requested_peak_meter_MW": 100, "assumed_utilization": 1.0, "assumed_delivery_loss_fraction": 0.05, "meter_energy_MWh": 876000.0, "required_generation_energy_MWh": 922105.2631578948, "required_generation_peak_MW": 105.26315789473685, "long_run_reference_energy_equivalents": 0.18080495356037155, "FY2026_reported_energy_equivalents": 0.2580037110122817, "year_end_capacity_equivalents": 0.08557980316645272, "admission": "Scale equivalents only. Actual commissioning-year energy and reported long-run average are different measures, not low/high forecasts. Delivery loss is an assumed constant scalar, not a grid flow model. No available allocation or reliable continuous service proved.", "national_productive_gain": "UNESTIMATED", "household_prosperity": "UNESTIMATED" }, { "calendar_year": 2027, "hours": 8760, "assumed_requested_peak_meter_MW": 1000, "assumed_utilization": 0.8, "assumed_delivery_loss_fraction": 0.0, "meter_energy_MWh": 7008000.0, "required_generation_energy_MWh": 7008000.0, "required_generation_peak_MW": 1000.0, "long_run_reference_energy_equivalents": 1.3741176470588234, "FY2026_reported_energy_equivalents": 1.9608282036933409, "year_end_capacity_equivalents": 0.8130081300813008, "admission": "Scale equivalents only. Actual commissioning-year energy and reported long-run average are different measures, not low/high forecasts. Delivery loss is an assumed constant scalar, not a grid flow model. No available allocation or reliable continuous service proved.", "national_productive_gain": "UNESTIMATED", "household_prosperity": "UNESTIMATED" }, { "calendar_year": 2027, "hours": 8760, "assumed_requested_peak_meter_MW": 1000, "assumed_utilization": 0.8, "assumed_delivery_loss_fraction": 0.05, "meter_energy_MWh": 7008000.0, "required_generation_energy_MWh": 7376842.105263159, "required_generation_peak_MW": 1052.6315789473686, "long_run_reference_energy_equivalents": 1.4464396284829724, "FY2026_reported_energy_equivalents": 2.0640296880982536, "year_end_capacity_equivalents": 0.8557980316645273, "admission": "Scale equivalents only. Actual commissioning-year energy and reported long-run average are different measures, not low/high forecasts. Delivery loss is an assumed constant scalar, not a grid flow model. No available allocation or reliable continuous service proved.", "national_productive_gain": "UNESTIMATED", "household_prosperity": "UNESTIMATED" }, { "calendar_year": 2027, "hours": 8760, "assumed_requested_peak_meter_MW": 1000, "assumed_utilization": 1.0, "assumed_delivery_loss_fraction": 0.0, "meter_energy_MWh": 8760000.0, "required_generation_energy_MWh": 8760000.0, "required_generation_peak_MW": 1000.0, "long_run_reference_energy_equivalents": 1.7176470588235293, "FY2026_reported_energy_equivalents": 2.451035254616676, "year_end_capacity_equivalents": 0.8130081300813008, "admission": "Scale equivalents only. Actual commissioning-year energy and reported long-run average are different measures, not low/high forecasts. Delivery loss is an assumed constant scalar, not a grid flow model. No available allocation or reliable continuous service proved.", "national_productive_gain": "UNESTIMATED", "household_prosperity": "UNESTIMATED" }, { "calendar_year": 2027, "hours": 8760, "assumed_requested_peak_meter_MW": 1000, "assumed_utilization": 1.0, "assumed_delivery_loss_fraction": 0.05, "meter_energy_MWh": 8760000.0, "required_generation_energy_MWh": 9221052.631578948, "required_generation_peak_MW": 1052.6315789473686, "long_run_reference_energy_equivalents": 1.8080495356037154, "FY2026_reported_energy_equivalents": 2.580037110122817, "year_end_capacity_equivalents": 0.8557980316645273, "admission": "Scale equivalents only. Actual commissioning-year energy and reported long-run average are different measures, not low/high forecasts. Delivery loss is an assumed constant scalar, not a grid flow model. No available allocation or reliable continuous service proved.", "national_productive_gain": "UNESTIMATED", "household_prosperity": "UNESTIMATED" }, { "calendar_year": 2027, "hours": 8760, "assumed_requested_peak_meter_MW": 10000, "assumed_utilization": 0.8, "assumed_delivery_loss_fraction": 0.0, "meter_energy_MWh": 70080000.0, "required_generation_energy_MWh": 70080000.0, "required_generation_peak_MW": 10000.0, "long_run_reference_energy_equivalents": 13.741176470588234, "FY2026_reported_energy_equivalents": 19.608282036933407, "year_end_capacity_equivalents": 8.130081300813009, "admission": "Scale equivalents only. Actual commissioning-year energy and reported long-run average are different measures, not low/high forecasts. Delivery loss is an assumed constant scalar, not a grid flow model. No available allocation or reliable continuous service proved.", "national_productive_gain": "UNESTIMATED", "household_prosperity": "UNESTIMATED" }, { "calendar_year": 2027, "hours": 8760, "assumed_requested_peak_meter_MW": 10000, "assumed_utilization": 0.8, "assumed_delivery_loss_fraction": 0.05, "meter_energy_MWh": 70080000.0, "required_generation_energy_MWh": 73768421.05263159, "required_generation_peak_MW": 10526.315789473685, "long_run_reference_energy_equivalents": 14.464396284829723, "FY2026_reported_energy_equivalents": 20.640296880982536, "year_end_capacity_equivalents": 8.557980316645272, "admission": "Scale equivalents only. Actual commissioning-year energy and reported long-run average are different measures, not low/high forecasts. Delivery loss is an assumed constant scalar, not a grid flow model. No available allocation or reliable continuous service proved.", "national_productive_gain": "UNESTIMATED", "household_prosperity": "UNESTIMATED" }, { "calendar_year": 2027, "hours": 8760, "assumed_requested_peak_meter_MW": 10000, "assumed_utilization": 1.0, "assumed_delivery_loss_fraction": 0.0, "meter_energy_MWh": 87600000.0, "required_generation_energy_MWh": 87600000.0, "required_generation_peak_MW": 10000.0, "long_run_reference_energy_equivalents": 17.176470588235293, "FY2026_reported_energy_equivalents": 24.51035254616676, "year_end_capacity_equivalents": 8.130081300813009, "admission": "Scale equivalents only. Actual commissioning-year energy and reported long-run average are different measures, not low/high forecasts. Delivery loss is an assumed constant scalar, not a grid flow model. No available allocation or reliable continuous service proved.", "national_productive_gain": "UNESTIMATED", "household_prosperity": "UNESTIMATED" }, { "calendar_year": 2027, "hours": 8760, "assumed_requested_peak_meter_MW": 10000, "assumed_utilization": 1.0, "assumed_delivery_loss_fraction": 0.05, "meter_energy_MWh": 87600000.0, "required_generation_energy_MWh": 92210526.31578948, "required_generation_peak_MW": 10526.315789473685, "long_run_reference_energy_equivalents": 18.08049535603715, "FY2026_reported_energy_equivalents": 25.80037110122817, "year_end_capacity_equivalents": 8.557980316645272, "admission": "Scale equivalents only. Actual commissioning-year energy and reported long-run average are different measures, not low/high forecasts. Delivery loss is an assumed constant scalar, not a grid flow model. No available allocation or reliable continuous service proved.", "national_productive_gain": "UNESTIMATED", "household_prosperity": "UNESTIMATED" } ], "shared_resource_examples": { "one_GW_fits_nameplate_fails_energy": { "arithmetic_status": "OVERSUBSCRIBED", "energy": { "known_demand_lower_bound": 8760000.0, "assumed_limit": 5100000, "unknown_project_inputs": [], "status": "VIOLATED_BY_KNOWN_DEMAND" }, "peak": { "known_demand_lower_bound": 1000.0, "assumed_limit": 1230, "unknown_project_inputs": [], "status": "WITHIN_ASSUMED_LIMIT" }, "remaining_resource_inputs": "Capital, operating resources, integration and workforce unknown; source pool is hypothetical." }, "high_peak_low_energy_fails_power": { "arithmetic_status": "OVERSUBSCRIBED", "energy": { "known_demand_lower_bound": 1138800.0, "assumed_limit": 5100000, "unknown_project_inputs": [], "status": "WITHIN_ASSUMED_LIMIT" }, "peak": { "known_demand_lower_bound": 1300.0, "assumed_limit": 1230, "unknown_project_inputs": [], "status": "VIOLATED_BY_KNOWN_DEMAND" }, "remaining_resource_inputs": "Capital, operating resources, integration and workforce unknown; source pool is hypothetical." }, "100MW_energy_and_power_fit_other_inputs_unknown": { "arithmetic_status": "UNKNOWN_INPUTS_OR_BASIS", "energy": { "known_demand_lower_bound": 876000.0, "assumed_limit": 5100000, "unknown_project_inputs": [], "status": "WITHIN_ASSUMED_LIMIT" }, "peak": { "known_demand_lower_bound": 100.0, "assumed_limit": 1230, "unknown_project_inputs": [], "status": "WITHIN_ASSUMED_LIMIT" }, "remaining_resource_inputs": "Capital, operating resources, integration and workforce unknown; source pool is hypothetical." }, "five100MW_shared_pool": { "arithmetic_status": "UNKNOWN_INPUTS_OR_BASIS", "energy": { "known_demand_lower_bound": 4380000.0, "assumed_limit": 5100000, "unknown_project_inputs": [], "status": "WITHIN_ASSUMED_LIMIT" }, "peak": { "known_demand_lower_bound": 500.0, "assumed_limit": 1230, "unknown_project_inputs": [], "status": "WITHIN_ASSUMED_LIMIT" }, "remaining_resource_inputs": "Capital, operating resources, integration and workforce unknown; source pool is hypothetical." }, "six100MW_shared_pool": { "arithmetic_status": "OVERSUBSCRIBED", "energy": { "known_demand_lower_bound": 5256000.0, "assumed_limit": 5100000, "unknown_project_inputs": [], "status": "VIOLATED_BY_KNOWN_DEMAND" }, "peak": { "known_demand_lower_bound": 600.0, "assumed_limit": 1230, "unknown_project_inputs": [], "status": "WITHIN_ASSUMED_LIMIT" }, "remaining_resource_inputs": "Capital, operating resources, integration and workforce unknown; source pool is hypothetical." }, "100MW_against_commissioning_year_reference": { "arithmetic_status": "UNKNOWN_INPUTS_OR_BASIS", "energy": { "known_demand_lower_bound": 876000.0, "assumed_limit": 3574000, "unknown_project_inputs": [], "status": "WITHIN_ASSUMED_LIMIT" }, "peak": { "known_demand_lower_bound": 100.0, "assumed_limit": 1230, "unknown_project_inputs": [], "status": "WITHIN_ASSUMED_LIMIT" }, "remaining_resource_inputs": "Capital, operating resources, integration and workforce unknown; source pool is hypothetical." } }, "measurement_limits": [ "FY2026includes partial-fleet commissioning;do not call3574/5100an underperformanceestimate or useyearendnameplateforannualcapacityfactor.", "No rawmeterdata or independentfieldreplication;utilitystatisticaltable reportedactuals are distinct from auditedfinancialstatement scope.", "Project outputalreadyexists inlaterbaselines;not newunallocated2026headroom or a freelyavailableindustrialallocation.", "No automatic geographicreplicability,hydrology,firmdelivery,transmission,workforce,rights,environmental orcapitalavailability admission." ], "national_achievable_gain": "UNESTIMATED", "household_prosperity": "UNESTIMATED", "verification": { "focused_checks": 37, "source_review": "Separate-context AI source criticism and dependency reobservation; initial fiscal-period error corrected. Same provider, not independent field replication or peer review.", "focused_checks_scope": "Underlying benchmark; public projection checks are separate." }, "shared_resource_units": { "energy": "MWh", "peak": "MW" } }